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Australian Wool Production Forecast 2026/27

Australian Wool Production Forecast 2026/27

The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee’s (AWPFC) second forecast of shorn wool production for the 2026/27 season is 249.3 Mkg greasy, down 1.8% from the estimated 253.9 Mkg greasy produced in 2025/26. Sheep shorn numbers are forecast to fall 4.7% to 56.3 million head, remaining at historically low levels.

  • National flock numbers appear to have stabilised, with any near-term flock growth likely to be driven by on-farm breeding rather than the purchase of replacement ewes due to high breeding stock prices.
  • Seasonal conditions have improved since the April forecast, with widespread rainfall across South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia supporting feed availability and producer confidence. Conditions remain mixed in New South Wales and challenging in Tasmania and parts of Queensland.
  • The Bureau of Meteorology outlook for September to November 2026 indicates below average rainfall is likely across south-west WA, south-east SA, Victoria, Tasmania and parts of NSW and southern Queensland, while above average rainfall is forecast for much of Western Australia; temperatures are expected to be above average across most of Australia.
  • Spring rainfall will be critical to supporting flock rebuilding through improved feed and water availability. However, ongoing cost pressures and a drier seasonal outlook are expected to temper producer confidence and encourage cautious management decisions.
  • Results from the May 2026 Sheep Producer Intentions Survey indicate improved producer confidence, supported by stronger sheepmeat and wool markets. More producers intend to retain stock, rebuild flocks and increase breeding ewe numbers.
  • The 2026/27 outlook follows an estimated shorn wool production of 253.9 Mkg greasy in 2025/26, down 9.4% from 2024/25 and 1.5 Mkg below the April forecast.
  • Shorn wool production declined across all states in 2025/26, ranging from 4.2% in Western Australia to 16.5% in South Australia. New South Wales remained the largest wool producing state at 98.6 Mkg greasy, followed by Victoria (55.9 Mkg greasy), Western Australia (43.0 Mkg greasy), South Australia (39.5 Mkg greasy), Tasmania (8.5 Mkg greasy) and Queensland (8.3 Mkg greasy).
  • Average cut per head was estimated at 4.29 kg greasy, down 3.6% on 2024/25. AWTA Key Test Data showed unchanged mean fibre diameter (20.5 µm) and vegetable matter (2.3%), with staple length increasing to 87.3 mm, while staple strength and yield declined slightly.
  • AWTA wool test volumes for the 2025/26 season were 271.7 Mkg greasy, down 8.0% year-on-year. First-hand wool offered at auction totalled 253.9 Mkg greasy, down 1.7%.
  • Sheep slaughter in 2025/26 fell 31% to 8.04 million head, while lamb slaughter declined 15% to 22.07 million head. Both sheep and lamb slaughter were below their respective five-year averages.

The AWPFC adopted the ABS flock estimates released in December 2025, which included revised national flock figures from 2016/17 onwards that reflect the change in scope to capture all sheep grown for commercial gain in Australia.

The National Committee drew on advice from the six State Committees, each of which includes growers, brokers, private treaty merchants, sheep pregnancy scanners, representatives from State Departments of Agriculture and the Australian Wool Testing Authority. Data and input were also drawn from AWTA, AWEX, wool exporters, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABARES, the Bureau of Meteorology and Meat and Livestock Australia.

The state and national Committees will next meet in mid-December 2026.

The full forecast report will be available on the AWI website at www.wool.com/forecasts from 4 September 2026.

Source: AWI

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