NZ Sheep Numbers Predicted to Go Down Due to Drought

Beef and Lamb New Zealand (B+LNZ) has released its annual stock number survey, showing a notable decline in both sheep and cattle numbers in the first half of 2024. The reduction follows significant decreases in the past couple of years.

While the primary driver in previous years has been land use change as a result of the conversion of sheep and beef farms into forestry, B+LNZ determined that this year’s primary driver was drought in key sheep and beef regions. 

Sheep numbers are estimated to have decreased by 4.3%, down to 23.31m, with breeding ewe numbers falling by 2.9% and trading sheep stock numbers fell 7.9%. B+LNZ stated that farmers sought to maintain their breeding ewes and decreased their trading stock more.

The decline in ewes and a lower expected lambing percentage, also caused by drought, means the lamb crop is anticipated to decrease by 4.8% (970,000 head) on last year. Chair of B+LNZ, Kate Acland said: “This year has been particularly tough for sheep and beef farmers. “The combination of drought across many parts of the country, high costs, and low sheep prices and has put immense pressure on farmers.  

“Farmers are facing tough decisions on their farms, with many having to sell off capital livestock not only due to drought but for cashflow reasons. The B+LNZ report indicates that while there may be a partial rebuild of stock numbers in some regions in the coming season, the full recovery of sheep numbers to pre-drought levels is unlikely, due to ongoing land use change into carbon forestry.

The number of beef cattle may recover more quickly as prices have remained strong for beef and farmers have been switching from sheep to cattle.  

Source: B+LNZ