Australian sheep producer confidence increasing
AUSTRALIAN sheep producer confidence has surged and flock expansion plans are accelerating, according to the latest industry intentions survey.
The latest Sheep Producers Intentions Survey conducted by Meat & Livestock Australia and Australian Wool Innovation has reported a sharp rise in producer confidence and strong intentions to grow flocks in 2026.
Key points in the survey results include:
- Producer sentiment towards the sheep meat sector among respondents has jumped to +78, the highest level since 2022
- Confidence in the wool industry has also improved significantly, with sentiment rising 38 points to +19
- More than half of producers (52 percent) completing the survey said they plan to increase flock size in 2026, up from 40pc last year.
The MLA-AWI forecast for the lamb flock in 2026 is now 31,086,056, up 11pc on this year’s ‘reported flock size’ of 27,923,529.
The survey report said of the estimated 28M lambs on hand in the industry, 40pc are prime lambs and 34pc are Merinos. The feedback from producers suggests that there are more producers holding prime lambs (42pc of producers reported holding prime lambs) than there are holding Merinos (35pc).
The survey indicated that the trend to shedding breeds has softened. In October 2022, 15pc of producers reported holding shedding lambs – this proportion increased to 23pc in October 2024 and now sits at 24pc in the October 2025.
The survey has estimated that an estimated 56pc of the lambs to be sold are forecast to be sold in the 2025 calendar year, with an estimate 19pc of this forecast volume already sold. This is similar to the 18pc estimated for the same period in 2024.
The survey results also indicate producers have placed a similar number of lambs into the market (at this time) than in 2024. Respondents also continue to report that a majority of the lambs scheduled to be sold in 2025 will be sold through saleyard auctions (57pc up from 55pc in 2024) and over the hooks sales will be down (26pc down from 28pc in 2024).
The survey results indicate that Queensland producers will have the largest percentage flock (ewes and lambs) increase into 2026 of 38pc, followed by South Australia 19pc, Victoria 15pc, New South Wales 10pc and Tasmania 2pc. Western Australian survey respondents indicated the state’s flock size would decrease by one percent.
South Australia has recorded one of the strongest outlooks nationally, with sentiment at +81 and flock growth forecast by 60pc of surveyed producers.
The improvement is confidence has been driven by buoyant lamb and mutton prices, and optimism for improved seasonal conditions.
Highest sentiment score since 2022
The October 2025 survey captured feedback from 1819 sheep producers’ nationwide, showing overall sentiment for the sheep meat sector has jumped 36 points to +78, up from +42 in 2024.
This marks the highest sentiment score since the survey redesign in 2022, MLA and AWI said.
MLA’s market information manager Erin Lukey said the results highlight a significant shift in the national flock’s outlook.
“Producers are feeling positive about the next 12 months, with strong lamb prices and expectations of better weather underpinning confidence.
“Over half of respondents, 52pc compared to 40pc last year, plan to increase their flock size in 2026, while only 28pc expect to reduce numbers,” she said.
“This is a clear signal of recovery and growth following challenging seasonal conditions in 2025.”
The main reasons for expansion include expectations of better lambing results next year, retaining more ewes, expanding sheep operations and anticipating good conditions over the next 12 months.
The survey found that meat breed flocks continue to grow, now representing 40pc of lambs, while Merinos have remained at 35pc. Poor seasonal conditions impacted 2025 marking rates, with Merinos at 74pc (down from 81pc in 2024), compared to prime lamb at 114pc and shedding breeds at 101pc.
The survey results showed that South Australia stood out as one of the most optimistic states in the October 2025 survey. Sentiment surged 50 points to +81, making SA one of the highest confidence regions nationally.
Sixty per cent of SA producers plan to increase their flock size in 2026, compared to just 25pc expecting a decrease.
The state’s positive outlook is underpinned by expectations of improved lambing results, with 56% of SA respondents citing this as a key factor, and operational expansion.
Based off intentions SA’s lamb flock is forecast to grow by 19pc, from 4.13 million in 2025 to 4.92 million in 2026, outpacing the national average increase of 11pc.
Ms Lukey says the outlook of South Australian producers reflects strong resilience and readiness to capitalise on better seasonal conditions and market opportunities.
“Producers and industry stakeholders can explore these findings with the MLA Market Information team in detail at MLA Updates in Adelaide on 20 November.”
Wool confidence improving
The survey respondents indicated confidence in the wool industry has also improved significantly, with sentiment rising 38 points to +19. While wool production remains low, prices have strengthened, with the Eastern Market Indicator reaching levels not seen since mid-2022, AWI and MLA said.
Wool producers responding in the survey are cautiously optimistic, with 36pc reporting a positive outlook compared to 17pc negative. This improvement is expected to influence decisions around flock composition and breeding strategies.
AWI’s head of domestic operations, Scott Carmody, said the survey results are heartening and reflect positive feedback the company has received from growers.
“The latest survey shows wool grower sentiment has turned around off the back of stronger prices paid in the auction room over the last six months.
“The 38-point improvement in sentiment in a year is welcome news,” he said.
“Confidence is key not just now, but into the future that’s reflected in the fact 41pc of growers surveyed believe price rises will continue in the year ahead.
“The current positive sentiment is being felt right along the wool supply chain, with increasing demand for the Northern Hemisphere winter season,” he said.
The SPIS is used to help industry determine wool and lamb production forecasts and to understand the breed composition of the Australian flock on a national, state and regional basis. It is used by processors for budgeting purposes and allows import markets to ascertain short-term supply estimates.
Source: Sheep Central, MLA, AWI.